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Madison Real Estate Statistics and TrendsMadison, WI Real Estate Trends - Oct, 2018 (in progress)

This report summarizes the latest market trends for single family homes in Madison, Wisconsin. All data comes from the South Central Wisconsin MLS. Unless otherwise noted, all statistics are current through the month of October, 2018

The Madison real estate market continues to trend very favorably for sellers of single family homes. Homes are selling quickly. Inventory remains limited. Prices are on the rise. Below is a snapshot from our October, 2018 report.

View our monthly Madison condo update here.

Madison Real Estate Market Summary: October, 2018

  • Madison home sales decreased in October and were flat compared to first 10 months of 2017. Sales would be higher if more single family homes were available for sale in the Madison market. 
  • Accepted offers were lower through the month of September.
  • Expired listings through September were at historically low levels. 
  • The Madison single family listing expiration rate was the lowest on record through the month of September. 
  • New listings through the month of September are at the lowest levels since the year 2012.  
  • As of November 9th, 2018, 35% of all single family listings were under contract with an accepted offer. Only 1.5 months of supply are available in the Madison single family home market. This low number demonstrates a clear sellers' market. Supply is especially low for houses priced under $350,000. 
  • The average days on market through the month of September was the lowest on record - another indicator of a seller's market.
  • Madison home prices are up through the month of October. The price per square foot is up 4% from last year and currently at a record high level. The average price is also up 4% and at an all-time high.  
  • Competing offers in 2017 were most prevalent in March, April and May. Through August of 2018, 38% of all accepted offers involved competition from 2 or more buyers - which is up from 35% last year. 
  • Cash offers are near historically high levels. Ten percent of all Madison single family home sales were financed with cash through the month of September. 

Our full reports follow:

Madison WI Home Sales - October, 2018

Madison home sales decreased in the month of October. A total of 188 single family homes were sold via the South Central Wisconsin MLS in the month of October, compared to 221 in October of 2018. 

Year-to-date, a total of 2,295 Madison single family home listings sold via the MLS, which was just below the 2,295 listings sold during the same time period in 2017. We expect closings to remain flat in 2018 due to low inventory in the Madison market. 

On an annual basis, a total of 2,656 Madison single family listings sold in 2017, an increase of 2% from the 2,616 listings sold in 2016. 

Madison 2017 Annual Home Sales

This graph shows the seasonality of the market. Each bar on this graph represents a month of closings from the 2016 calendar year. As the graph shows, home sales follow a very predictable, seasonal pattern. Closings peak in the middle of the year after bottoming out in January and February. 

2017 Madison Home Sales by Month

Madison Home Sales: January, 2000 - October, 2018

This table shows the monthly, year-to-date and annual Madison home sale totals for every time period dating back to January, 2000. Note: Green indicates a sales increase from the same time period of the previous year. Red indicates a sales decrease.  

Madison Single Family Accepted Offers - Sept, 2018

Accepted offers (i.e. "pending home sales") provide a forward-looking view of the market. When accepted offers rise, that's an indication that closings (i.e. home sales) will increase in the months ahead. A total of 151 Madison single family home listings received accepted offers in the month of September, which was the well below the the total from September of 2017.   

A total of 2,074 Madison single family listings received accepted offers year-to-date through the month of September, down from the 2,215 accepted offers through September of 2017.

A total of 2,649 single family home listings received accepted offers in 2017. This was the second highest total on record for the Madison single family home market. 

Madison Single Family Accepted Offers 2017

This graph shows the number of Madison accepted offers by week for the 2017 calendar year. This is a great graph for sellers to review prior to choosing a list date. As the graph makes clear, accepted offer activity picks up significantly by February. Sellers who want to time the market just right should have their home on the market by March 1st rather than wait until May or June.

.Madison Accepted Offers by Week 2017

This graph shows accepted offers by month for the 2017 calendar year. February, March, April, May and June had the highest levels of buyer activity in 2017. 

Madison 2017 Accepted Offers by Month

Madison Single Family Accepted Offers: January, 2000 - Sep, 2018

This table shows the monthly, year-to-date and annual Madison single family accepted offer totals for each time period dating back to January, 2000. As the table below shows, accepted offers decreased (noted by the red data points) 8 of 12 months in 2016 and in 5 of 12 months in 2017. Low inventories are limiting the number of accepted offers in 2018. 

Madison Expired Single Family Listings - September, 2018 

A total of 34 Madison single family home listings expired in the month of September, which was the lowest expired listing total on record. This is a clear indicator of a strong seller's market in Madison. 

A total of 177 Madison single family home listings expired year-to-date through the month of September, which was the lowest expired listing total going back to at least the year 2000

In all of 2017, 353 Madison listings expired, which was the lowest expired listing total going back to at least the year 2000. 

 

Madison Expired Single Family Listings: Jan, 2000 - Sep, 2018

This table shows the monthly, year-to-date and annual Madison expired listing totals for each time period dating back to January, 2000. As the table below shows, expired listings have been on a downward trend for the last several years.  

Madison Single Family Expiration Rate - September, 2018

A listing can either "sell" or "expire". The listing expiration rate represents the percentage of listings that expire. Low expiration rates are seen in strong sellers' markets. High expiration rates are seen in strong buyers' markets. 

The Madison single family listing expiration rate in the month of September was only 16%. As the graph below shows, this was the second lowest on record for the month of September. 

The year-to-date listing expiration rate through the month of September was 8%. This was the lowest rate on record. 

The annual listing expiration rate in 2017 was 12%, which was the lowest rate on record for the Madison single family home market. 

Annual Madison Single Family Expiration Rate

Madison Single Family Expiration Rate: Jan, 2000 - Sept, 2018

This table shows the monthly, year-to-date and annual single family listing expiration rate for every time period dating back to January, 2000. Expiration rates have been trending lower for the last several years. 

Madison Single Family New Listings - October, 2018

A total of 197 single family listings entered the Madison real estate market in the month of October - which was low by historical standards. 

Year-to-date, a total of 2,625 new single family home listings entered the Madison real estate market through the month of October - which was the lowest new listing total since 2012.

 

A total of 2,889 new listings entered the Madison real estate market in 2017. This annual total is one of the lowest on record. New listings have been entering the market at subdued levels each of the last 10 years.

 Madison Annual Single Family New Listings 2017

This graph shows the number of new listings by week for the 2017 calendar year. As the graph below shows, new listing activity grows very quickly after the 1st of the year. Based on this information, it's a smart play for buyers to be searching for homes in January and February before the Spring market arrives. 

Madison New Listings by Week in 2017

This graph shows the number of new MLS listings by month in calendar year 2017. 

Madison Single Family New Listings by Month in 2017

Madison Single Family New Listings: January, 2000 - October, 2018

This table shows the number of new listings by month dating back to January, 2000. As the table below shows, new listings increased on a year-over-year basis 8 of 12 months in 2015 and only 3 of 12 months in 2016. Listings were higher in 6 of 12 months in 2017, and in 5 of 10 months in 2018. 

 

Madison Single Family Home Months of Supply - 11/9/2018

The table below paints a good picture of the single family home real estate market in Madison. The price ranges highlighted in yellow are most advantageous to sellers. Taking accepted offers into account, all of the price ranges under $350,000 have 1.5 months of inventory or less (see the column on the far right). Overall, more than 35% of all Madison single family home listings have an accepted offer. 

There are only 1.5 months of inventory available in the Madison single family market as of November 9th, 2018 - which is just above the 1.4 months recorded in November of 2017. 

 

The Madison single family home market has had less than 2 months of supply since December 2015, indicating a strong seller's market. 

 

This graph shows how active listings have changed from November 2015 to November 2018. Active listings in Madison are up 8 percent from a year ago and down 18 percent from 2015. 

This graph shows the percent of single family home listings with accepted offers dating back to October, 2015. Each bar on the graph represents a snapshot taken mid-month. The percent of listings under contract in October of 2018 was 31% - down from 35% in October of 2017.  

 

Madison WI Homes - Days on Market - Sept, 2018

The days on market for a sold listing is the number of days from the date of listing until the date of the accepted offer. The days on market for Madison homes are trending much lower than they have in the past. The average days on market for the month of September was only 19 days, which was the lowest on record. 

 

Year-to-date, the average Madison days on market through the month of August was only 25 days. As the graph below shows, this was the lowest year-to-date average on record.  

 

The average days on market for all of 2017 was only 32 days. This annual average was the lowest on record.

 Madison Homes Days on Market 2017

Madison Single Family Days on Market: Jan, 2000 - Sept, 2018

This table shows the average days on market by month dating back to January, 2000. As the green data points show, the average has been on a downward path since 2012. The table also shows the seasonality of the market. Days on market tend to be lowest during the summer months and highest during the winter months.

Madison WI Home Prices - October, 2018

The price per square foot is the best statistic we have for measuring home values. The graph below shows the annual Madison single family home price per square foot for every year spanning the year 2000 to 2017. As the graph shows, Madison home prices have risen 5 straight years. Home values in 2017 were the highest on record for the city of Madison.  

Madison Annual Price per sqr Ft 2017

In October of 2018, the average price per square foot was $158 - which was a record high for the month and up 6% from the year prior. 

On a year-to-date basis in 2018, the average price per square foot through the month of October was $162, which was a new high for the Madison single family home market - and up 4% from last year.  

Historical Price per Square Foot - October, 2018

This table shows the price per square foot year-over-year increase/decrease for every month dating back to January, 2000. Year-to-date home prices are up by 4% through the month of October. 

Madison Average Home Price - October, 2018

The average single family home sales price in the month of October was $308,785, which was the highest on record. 

Year-to-date, the average Madison sales price was $309,277. This is a record high for the Madison single family home market and up 4% from last year. 

The average single family sales price for all of 2017 was $294,264. This annual average was the highest on record and up by more than $21,000 from last year.

Annual Madison Home Prices 2017

Madison Home Prices: January, 2000 - October, 2018

This table shows the percent increase/decrease for every month dating back to January, 2000. As the green data points show, Madison home prices have been trending higher since 2013. Prices increased in 11 of 12 months in 2016 and all 12 months in 2017. Prices have started the year off strong once again in 2018. 

Madison Homes - % with Competing Offers (August, 2018)

For listings that receive accepted offers, this statistic measures the percent that receive written offers from 2 or more competing parties. As the graph below displays, the months of March, April, and May had the highest percentage of competing offers in 2017. Bidding wars and escalating prices are most prevalent during the Spring and early Summer months. In July of 2018, 23% of all accepted offers included competition from other buyers - up from 19% the year before. During the first 8 months of the year, 38% of all single family listings had a competing offer, compared to 35% for the first 8 months of 2017. 

Single Family Competing Offers by Price Range: Jan-Aug, 2018

This table shows the percent of accepted offers that involve 2 or more competing buyers (see the far right column). The data shows single family home listings priced under $300,000 tend to be the most competitive. Overall, 38% of all accepted offers through August involved competition from multiple buyers. 

Madison Homes - Cash Offers - September, 2018

Through the month of August, 10% of all Madison Single Family home sales were purchased with cash. Note, cash offers are most prevalent at the low end and high end of the market. 

This graph shows the annual percentage of cash offers for every year spanning from 2000 to 2017. Note, cash offers are much more prevalent in the condo market. 

Madison Cash Offers 2017

About the Author

Dan Miller has been helping clients buy and sell homes and condos since 2007. Please feel free to contact Dan with any questions you have about the Madison real estate market or any other market in the South Central Wisconsin area.